It was eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while his coach scolded him over missing a pass in behind. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, the question was if his displays were a sign or the source of Villa's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. As the in-form star drilled in his second to restore his side's advantage, the boss discarded his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. Villa continued to ten wins in a row , after failing to win any of their first six matches, now sit just three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?
That’s a rather hard question to address. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant this season, while the positive results have accumulated.
As per Opta, in only two games has the team posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club which has put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – however right now the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for their star man to rescue them with two clinical strikes. This was the case away to Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened versus Manchester United.
The initial strike came from a superb shot, bent just inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opposition had more shots and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.
A statistical correction might be the most significant challenge the club must confront as the season progresses. The forward, surely, cannot maintain blasting the ball into the top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Could it be an alternative path where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players could still return to peak condition.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- The winger could transform into the player he resembled in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are set to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt back in October, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a hunt for the title while looking like a vital England player.
This winning streak should be enjoyed exactly since it seems so surreal. When Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are rare in football and should be relished.
